Saturday, October 22, 2011

Limited posting continues- Notices and info

-Period of limited posting will continue until midday tomorrow.
-work continues on final winter forecast. We will be issuing separate winter forecasts for regional perspectives slong with the national forecast.
-Sneak peeks for the winter forecast will be released in coming days. Be on watch.

0z GFS, ECMWF Bomb Out on Northeast with Coastal Storm

The low is in Virginia with the bigger numbers '990', meaning 990 millibars- a strong low pressure system.
The 0z GFS has produced a bomb for the Northeast, sending a coastal storm racing through the Eastern Seaboard around hour 180 on the GFS, or just over a week out. Things will, of course, change, but this is an interesting development and will be something to watch. This 0z run also put out snowfall over portions of New York...
Hour 180 Snowfall Accumulation
The GFS shows up to 8 inches of snow falling in New York close to the Great Lakes. The models aren't the best when it comes to winter storms, but there appears to be an idea forming that this may happen, as last night's 0z run (same time as the GFS) produces a coastal storm as well:
Hour 168 of ECMWF (Pay attention to top right image where it shows the low).
The GEM/NOGAPS model each have similar -but at the same time different- solutions. None the less we will continue watching it.