Saturday, August 10, 2013

Long Range Hints About the Winter of 2013-2014

As I'm putting together my winter forecast (which comes out on the last day of August at 12:00 PM Central), I'm finding that things we are seeing in the late summer/early fall are already providing hints as to what we can expect this winter. Here are a few of them.

1. The Plains could receive the strongest cold over the winter season.
I mentioned this one on The Weather Centre's Facebook Page, and this stems from, among other things tha have brought this theory to the foreground, a favorable pattern in my analog package. After analysis of correlations, the analog package confirms that the mid level atmospheric flow could experience multiple bouts where the jet stream collapses south and engages the Plains in some seriously cold air.

2. The East Coast will see a temperature battle through the winter.
The temperature battle zone for the US will most likely fall along the East Coast through the winter season, as I anticipate increased probabilities of high pressure formation in the waters east of the Mid-Atlantic. Its close proximity to the US will most likely allow propagation of high pressure westward, partially on land, where it will raise the jet stream and permit warmer air to flow north. On the other hand, a rambunctious jet stream will have the tendency to fight the high pressure formation in the Atlantic, leading to a back-and-forth temperature pattern.

3. Nor'easters return in force
It is quite possible we see the emergence of a hyper-active coastal storm regime over the upcoming winter season. As I mentioned in my Preliminary winter forecast, my analog package and long range models remain steadfast on the idea of a strong East Asian jet stream this winter. A stronger jet stream would increase the potential of stormier weather in that area. Using a 6-10 day gap between a significant East Asia storm and an East US storm, the chances of more coastal storms are on the rise. Above normal sea surface temperatures off the East Coast also help these chances.

NOTE: Keep in mind these are only HINTS and do NOT resemble my current forecast at this time. They are subject to change and may very well do so before the release of my official forecast on August 31.