Today's Featured Post: Updated Long Range Outlook Will be Issued Wednesday at 4:30 PM Central Time.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Notice

Due to the immaturity of some people on this blog, all comments will now have to be reviewed by me before they are published.

Honestly, if those people are seeing this, I can't believe just how ridiculous your behavior is. I didn't know people could be that malicious, and I hope you're happy that I have to restrict comments at this point. I'm extremely disappointed.

To those that comment with worthwhile information: I sincerely apologize for doing this, however your comments will be published if you do decide to keep commenting with valuable information. Again, I apologize for this.

Andrew

Moderate Risk to Cover Wisconsin, NE Iowa

A moderate risk of severe weather is incoming today for much of Wisconsin, northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and a small part of the northern section of Michigan.

Indications are that severe winds will be possible considering the latest model output, leading the SPC to put in this risk in association with the squall line that will move through this area later today. The concern is that this line will now produce severe winds, thus the upgrade.

Andrew

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat in the Cards This Weekend

There are two large areas of severe weather outlined by the Storm Prediction Center on Sunday (D4) and Monday (D5), which is Memorial Day (click here to see the post on the Memorial Day threat). It appears that a large low pressure system will be in place over the Northern US. This storm system will have a cold front trailing it, and this front will most likely create the main severe threat. However, seeing as very high temperatures and dewpoints will be in place, pop up storms ahead of the cold front are certainly within the realm of possibility.

Andrew

Memorial Day Holds Large Severe Threat

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area from Michigan to Kansas for a risk of severe thunderstorms on Memorial Day. Cities in this risk include Chicago, Illinois, Des Moines, Iowa and Topeka, Kansas.

Discussion
Strong low pressure will be in place over the US/Canada border in the Dakotas region. A warm front will be extending through the Great Lakes, leading temperatures into the upper 90s, likely breaking records in many areas. A cold front will be located in the Plains, but it does appear that scattered showers and storms, potentially severe, will pop out ahead of the cold front. Following those storms, the cold front will gather strength and may come out as a squall line and affect the area highlighted above.
Upper level winds and associated shearing will be located in the northern parts of the risk area, like northern Wisconsin and Michigan.

Andrew