Saturday, July 16, 2011

StormTrack: July 16: Supercells in North Dakota

We are closely watching erupting thunderstorms over North Dakota at this time.
Tornado Watch #649 is in effect for Central/East North Dakota as well as Northwest Minnesota.

Synopsis... Over the last while, thunderstorms have been erupting in North Dakota with vigor. One storm went tornado warned, but has since weakened.
We have identified an area near Bowdon, ND where VIL's are particularly high, indicative of very large hail.

We will have more updates

2011-2012 Winter Forecast: Nino 3.4 Patterns

Using patterns over the last several years associated with the Nino 3.4 index (the index that determines La Nina/El Nino), we were able to map out 3 examples over the past several years.
All these examples have at least one thing in common:

•La Nina conditions either completely faded away or deteriorated in the summer, then made a resurgence in the winer months.

The years we are looking at are 1996-1997, 2000-2001, and 2008-2009.
Based on those years, I was able to pull up 2 maps for those years- Temperature and Precipitation for DJF (December-January-February).
Temperature Anomalies

Precipitation Anomalies
The North Plains into the Lower Great Lakes were much cooler than normal, and the Lower Great Lakes had slightly above normal precipitation.
The Southeast had below normal precipitation, and slightly warmer temperatures. The Southwest was very warm, as was the Northeast.

What does all this data mean to me?
It is a good indicator of what could come this winter. The above two images are probably the best two indicators of what could happen this winter, so it would be wise to use these as a reference at this time.