Saturday, December 3, 2011

December 9-11 Potential Snow System (Great Lakes, Midwest Affected) (Updated 12/3)

The ECMWF is bringing back the idea of a December 9-12 snow system, but this time in the 9-11 timeframe. Below is a comparison of the 12z ECMWF December 1st model run and today's 12z ECMWF model run.

December 1st ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 11

December 3rd ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 10
Check out just how similar the model runs are with placement of the storm. There are some differences though, including storm strength and the amount of cold air available. Today's 12z ECMWF indicates much colder air will be available, but the storm will be weaker than what the Dec. 1 ECMWF model run showed. For those who are wondering, the GFS is not showing this prospect. But since the ECMWF has brought this idea back, I believe it warrants close monitoring, as trends like this ought to be closely followed.

Plan of Action for Models Page

In case you haven't heard, we are doing a major renovation on the Weather models page by converting websites into individual links by each model forecast hour.

This means MANY MORE links but MUCH easier access to the models.
Our potential finish date is hopefully by Spring 2012.
During that time you will see some model pages have a sign indicating it is under construction.
Here's the plan of action.

1: Get necessary model links up (precip, temperature, etc.), delete older model links.
2: Convert some links.
3: Add new links.
4: Sort out additional, less necessary links (instability, snowfall ratios, etc.).

Again this will be a very long process and posting may be more limited as we work to accomplish this huge task.

Snow Days Not Out of Question for December 5-7 Snowstorm

Bottom stripe of snow is December 5-7 storm
I believe that some areas within this stripe of heavier snow from the December 5-7 snowstorm could easily cause a 'snow day' or delay of school for some areas when the system passes through. This image projects over a foot of snow to fall in Central Illinois, with isolated higher totals in Missouri. We have yet to have a definitive chance for a snowstorm, but rather be safe than sorry, we have decided to outline a risk for snow days.