Thursday, January 26, 2012

CFS Weekly Forecasts- 1/26/12

Weeks 3 and 4 (top to bottom) 500mb height forecasts 
The latest CFS v2 weekly forecasts are showing  very interesting scenario developing in the next 3-4 weeks. Before I go further, remember that this is very long range and therefore will most certainly change, possibly drastically.
We will focus on week 4 (bottom image). In the last days of February, we are seeing a -NAO and a ridge over Alaska. The -NAO is characterized by a strong ridge right near Greenland (the gray/beige color embedded in the dark red). At this time, the NAO looks to be west based, which is not the most ideal conditions for a snowstorm, but still a starting point considering the lack of -NAO days this winter.
There is also a ridge forecasted to be in Alaska. This ridge has only been observed a couple times at most this winter, and in the times it was observed we saw some cold and snow. I would not be surprised to see a big snowstorm for the Northeast in the last week of February if this verifies, as the combination of a -NAO/Alaskan Ridge end up with a trough in place offshore the Northeast (the green region).

Again, this is all very uncertain, but it could be a step in the right direction.