Friday, August 19, 2011

ECMWF Ensembles moving west with Invest 97L

This system, Invest 97L, is becoming more and more likely to develop. With the 12z run of the ECMWF, we have discovered that the ECMWF (Euro) ensembles are more westerly than the actual ECMWF. At the same time, they are slightly weaker. Bear in mind that the ECMWF was the main winner in dealing with tropical storm Emily. Without further ado, here is the ECMWF ensemble as far out as I could run it.
While this looks weak, it is likely that the Gulf of Mexico will provide rapid intensification, as a lot of energy appears to be in that area. If the ECMWF ensembles keep this system to the west, it is possible that states like Louisiana, Texas would have a better chance of getting hit. This is nearly 200 hours out, so take this with a fairly large grain of salt. We will update you as needed.


There are some minor problems with Blogger, but do not affect our posting abilities.
Anyways, here's the status on the following discussions:

Severe Weather Discussion: Cancelled
Atlantic Weather Discussion: Postponed until 11 AM
Pacific Weather Discussion: Status Unknown
Short Range Forecast: Postponed until 11 AM