Saturday, December 10, 2011

Pattern Change Starting

Temperatures at 1mb level.
The much-anticipated pattern change is starting up, in accordance with our mid-December prediction for the pattern change. The above graphic displays temperatures at the 1mb level. You can see that the red line (observed temperatures) is beginning to move towards more positive territory, which would warm up the atmosphere, release the cold air in the north, and definitely start up the winter pattern. We will be closely monitoring this temperature trend, but things are indeed looking up for winter to start.

The Texas County with the Least-Present Drought Conditions is...


Red River County is the county in Texas that is faring the best with the drought, as per drought analysis. Below is a graph of current drought conditions along with a legend for the colors. Below the legend is the percent of the state that is covered in each state of drought. Note: A county in any drought level is also included in all the less-severe drought levels.
Red River County is the county in NE Texas with yellow in it.

Visible Satellite imagery Reveals Snow Cover

With the clearing of clouds comes the luxury of being able to see snow cover on the surface by looking at visible satellite imagery. We have outlined the areas where some snow cover is. This is something meteorologists will look at to get a more regional view of where snow fell and where snow did not fall.

December 20 Snow Event (Midwest Affected)

Confidence Level: Medium-High

12z GFS at Hour 240

12z ECMWF at Hour 240
The 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS appear to be in a good agreement over a low pressure system forecast to move over the Midwest, putting down snow in portions of the region. However, the ECMWF appears to be slightly more northward than the GFS, thus pushing snowfall higher north. The top image's thick blue line is the rain/snow line, meaning all precipitation above the blue line is theoretically all snow. The GFS has been shifting southward with this storm, and it appears the ECMWF has as well. If this trend continues, cities such as Chicago and Milwaukee may get snow when they were instead forecast to receive rain. Again, there are model differences that have to be worked out, but the general trend is shown well at this time.