Today's Featured Post: Updated Long Range Outlook Will be Issued Wednesday at 4:30 PM Central Time.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Personal Winter Forecast: Gloversville NY, Minneapolis MN, Onalaska TX

GLOVERSVILLE, NEW YORK

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Temperature: Ending Around Normal or Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least +5 inches)

New York, after the October snowstorm is in a good position for snowfall this winter. Temperatures may wobble enough to become slightly above normal, as may precipitation.

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA

Precipitation: Around Normal
Temperature: Much Below Normal (At least -2 degrees)
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal

Minneapolis should benefit with well below temperatures to increase snow ratios enough to get above normal snowfall, while precipitation should wind up around normal.

ONALASKA, TEXAS

Precipitation: Much Below Normal (Record Drought)
Temperature: Above Normal (At least +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Below Normal


Texas has and will continue to have above normal temperatures, record below normal temperatures, and definitely below normal snowfall.

Personal Winter Forecast: Leesburg VA, West Plains MO, Beckley WV

LEESBURG, VIRGINIA

Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Temperature: Ending Slightly Above Normal or Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal

Virginia is not in a good spot for storms in the Northeast, so snowfall and temperatures should end up below normal. Temperatures ought to end up above normal in a late season warm up, aided by what has happened in the fall.

WEST PLAINS, MISSOURI

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal
Temperature: Slightly Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (By at least 3 inches)

Missouri should get the brunt of snow when the pattern change comes and cold air is more abundant. However, warm shots should disrupt the cold enough to produce a somewhat slightly above normal temperatures. Snowfall and precipitation should be abundant as storms track through.

BECKLEY, WEST VIRGINIA

Precipitation: Slightly Below Normal
Temperature: Ending Slightly Above Normal or Around Normal
Snowfall: Below Normal


West Virginia is in a bad spot this winter, with below normal precipitation and snowfall while they are in a bad spot for storms. Temperatures have been warmed by this fall and may continue to do so through the winter.

Thunderstorm Risk in the Southeast

Probabilities of lightning are increasing for the Southeast as we begin to see some thunderstorms form along an area of increased instability and Lifted Index values. By the way this lightning image is shown, it appears that the storms will come in two waves, but will likely not be totally severe. It is possible that some cloud-to-ground lightning will pop up, but nothing significant. Watch for some small hail.

Personal Winter Forecast: Chicago IL, Sioux Falls SD, Mount Laurel NJ

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS

Precipitation: Above Normal (Up to 2 inches above normal)
Temperature: Around Normal
Snowfall: Slightly Below Normal*
*Lower than normal Confidence. 


Chicago is facing a difficult winter. After a dismal start, the Windy City is waiting for a pattern change that their winter very well may depend on. We believe that Chicago should end up with slightly below normal snowfall after a slow winter start, but temperatures should become moderate. Precipitation should be above normal after a wet fall, and warm storms may add to the rain and thus add to the winter precipitation.

SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH DAKOTA

Precipitation: Normal
Temperature: Below Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least 2 inches above normal)

South Dakota should end up with a cold winter and some snowy winter weather as the Canadian cold air will eventually open up to the North Plains. Precipitation should be normal.

MOUNT LAUREL, NEW JERSEY

Precipitation: Above Normal (At least 1 inch above normal)
Temperature: Possibly Ending Above Normal
Snowfall: Above Normal (At least 5 inches above normal)


Coastal storms should put the Northeast in at least a fairly good position for snowfall and precipitation, but not for temperatures, as a wet fall and a warm fall have given a glimpse of what will come.

Pattern Change Update- Too Little Too Late??

Posted December 21--

Is the Pattern Change coming too little too late??

The ECMWF seasonals. They are forecasts made by the ECMWF model for seasonal forecasts. We have heard from the weather world that the December seasonals are not looking good, temperature wise, for the rest of winter. While this seems like a long stretch, let me tell you why it is possible.

Stratospheric Temperatures.
The thing is, they just aren't warming fast enough for any significant pattern change to happen until Mid January- and that's best case scenario. The way these temperatures are heading is, in my point of view, signaling that winter won't be present for the foreseeable future. As soon as these 30mb, 50mb and 70mb temperatures start jumping to warmer temperatures, we will be able to set a timeframe. Until then, there's no point in wildly guessing.
The NAO and AO are supposedly going to remain trending positive until this pattern change occurs, so a Northeast snowstorm is looking unlikely right now and past the first week or two of 2012. That is quite long range, so our confidence on that is low.
We will keep you updated for any further information about this pattern change, right here, on The Weather Centre.

Personal Winter Forecast: Omaha NE, Detroit, MI, Holmesville, OH

OMAHA, NEBRASKA

Precipitation: Normal to Slightly Below Normal (-0.2 to -0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+1 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Around Normal

Omaha will be ending up with some interesting precipitation and temperatures, but overall, those two may end up below normal. Snowfall ought to become normal.

DETROIT, MICHIGAN

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +0.4 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (+0.5 to +2 degrees)
Snowfall: Slightly Above Normal (2-7 inches above normal)*
*Confidence is low for amounts in inches.

Detroit will have an interesting winter as soon as the pattern change begins. Precipitation and snowfall will be above normal, while temperatures should end up slightly above normal.

HOLMESVILLE, OHIO

Precipitation: Slightly Above Normal (+0.2 to +1 inches)
Temperature: Above Normal (Up to 2 degrees above normal)
Snowfall: Above Normal (Up to 10 inches above normal)


Holmesville will get hammered when the pattern change takes hold, with above normal snowfall, precipitation and temperatures. A warm fall has led to the likelihood of continuing warm temperatures, while a very very wet fall will continue into winter.

30 Minutes until the first 3 Personal Winter Forecasts are Released!

In 30 minutes, the first 3 personal winter forecasts will be released. They are: Omaha Nebraska, Detroit Michigan, and Holmesville Ohio.