Friday, March 30, 2012

2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast

Hello everyone and here is the long-awaited 2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast.
I have to say, I don't have too much information to share as a lot of pieces are too far out, so this is more of an examination of the ENSO conditions.

This past winter we were in a fake La Nina. It had a La Nina, but with El Nino weather conditions resulting. This summer, we are expected to have a neutral ENSO condition, and by this winter we may even have a slight El Nino. Here's a forecast for DJF (December, January, February) 2012-2013 off the Scripps ENSO Model.

The Scripps Model is forecasting a east-Based El Nino. There is indeed a difference between west based and east based. However, we won't dig into that because it is too far out to tell at this point.
Here's the average precipitation and temperature (respectively) results from weak El Ninos.

A weak El Nino typically brings slightly below average temperatures to the country, while bringing more precipitation to the East Coast and below normal rainfall for the Southeast.

Because it is so far out and I don't have too much to work with, here is what I will say:
•Weak El Nino likely
•Probably more precipitation for the East Coast


Severe Weather Risk for Today, March 30

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined two severe weather risk areas today- one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the South Plains.

The Ohio Valley severe weather risk will be the result of a convective system currently moving east across Illinois. As the system gets into the Ohio Valley, instability of up to 2000 j/kg will be available, making for a situation that could sustain some mainly hail-producing severe storms.

The South Plains severe weather risk is positioned in a way that tells me it may be a linear formation. A system will eject eastward and bump against a dry line in central Texas. This will initiate some strong severe storms that will have a mainly hail-producing risk.

Keep up to date with the latest weather developments on The Weather Centre's Facebook Page.