Thursday, March 8, 2012

Long Range GFS Points to Stormy South

The latest long range GFS is pointing to a very wet and stormy South, with over 8 inches of precipitation forecasted in the next 16 days by the GFS. This high precipitation will come from a number of systems.

These high precipitation forecasts are not surprising, as the Alaskan Vortex currently in place will be sending a number of storm systems down the Northeast, into the Southwest where the systems will eject east into the South Plains and potentially cause some severe storms.

You cannot see the storm's precipitation in the Southwest because there is no Gulf Air to influence precipitation to fall in that area.


6-10 Day Outlook: 3/14/12 - 3/18/12

Courtesy CPC
The temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days is looking pretty warm across the eastern half of the US as a general ridging pattern in the upper air levels is indicated. There will be some below normal temperatures in Alaska and on the West Coast, but that's about it.

The areas that will experience the most warmth in the next 6-10 days include the Lower Great Lakes and Plains regions. Those areas have over a 90% chance of being above normal. While the map does not determine how much above normal, it seems safe to say that 5 degrees+ above normal is a good bet. The higher the probability, the higher the temperature anomaly.

Courtesy CPC
Precipitation wise, the most precipitation appears to be centered over the northwest, with some above normal anomalies in various sections of the Plains. On the low end, the Florida region and Southwest will be dealing with below normal temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook.

I am not surprised that the Northwest will be wet, as the Alaskan Vortex will act to push systems into that area and down into the Southwest, as the ridge over the East US will not be able to carry the storm system east through the ridge. Then those storm systems eject into the Texas area and will likely produce bouts of thunderstorms, some possibly strong. That precipitation may very well extend north as shown in above normal anomalies in Nebraska and South Dakota.