Synoptic set-up begins with storm system digging through Northern Plains and pushing down towards the central Plains. Negative tilt will evolve with this system, and high pressure will blossom through the Midwest into southern Canada. As a result of this negative tilt digging southeast, instability and moisture will flow freely throughout the Plains and Midwest, resulting in significant severe weather potential. Saturday severe weather potential looks to be a stormy day for the Northern Plains, with the potential for all modes of severe weather. Sunday appears to be the most significant day of this trio, as the storm goes into a full-on negative tilt and gets the severe weather going. There is potential for a severe weather outbreak on Sunday evening, as extreme instability and a rather favorable environment for tornadoes takes over the area outlined in turquoise. We'll get a bit more in-depth on Sunday later on in this post. Monday looks to be an interesting day still, although at this point the storm system as become a closed low and the negative tilt has dissipated. We should still see a severe weather event for those in the dark blue, although the depth of this event is to be determined. When gathering all the facts for all three days, and after examining several modes of forecasting tools, I anticipate that a (potentially significant) severe weather outbreak will get going this weekend.
|June 8, 1993|
|June 11, 2004|
|June 11, 2004 Observed Storm Reports|
|June 8, 1993 Observed Storm Reports|