Friday, October 26, 2012

Hurricane Sandy 11:00 PM Update (10/26/12)

Hurricane Sandy is now on track to hit just south of New Jersey in an event that will prove historic for the region.

Sandy is likely to hit early in the workweek, which may catch many people off guard. Model guidance suggests that this storm may end up lingering around the region, which would provoke sustained flash flooding in the region.

Below, you see the model consensus from the 12z model suite, as well as the 84 hour forecast on the new 0z NAM. On the bottom right, you can see total precipitation that is expressed in values surpassing 100. You can determine the inch value by multiplying the shown value by 0.01 and you can see the total inches of rainfall.

This is getting dangerous. I cannot stress this enough- PREPARE NOW AND EVACUATE IF NECESSARY!!

I will have a morning update tomorrow.


State Of Emergency Declarations - 10/26/12

The following states have declared states of emergency in advance of Hurricane Sandy's arrival:


Residents of these states are advised to prepare for a life-threatening event. Stock up and prepare now for supplies that would enable you to survive at least 3 days without any power.


Hurricane Sandy 4:45 PM Update 10/26/12

Sandy remains a hurricane at this hour, although she has weakened since yesterday. Models indicate fluctuations in strength will continue for the next several hours before a more sustained weakening of Sandy occurs.

I made a new Impact Scale below, detailing my latest thoughts. I did this scale on short notice, and had to do this away from my computer, so it does look a bit mediocre. Here's the breakdown.

Breezy conditions with precipitation possible. A nuisance event.

Windy, small twigs and unsecured objects may blow around. Heavier precipitation is observed. Situation similar to a summer thunderstorm event.

Very windy. Large branches may break off and property damage may occur. Roofing may become damaged. Unstable structures may collapse. Heavy precipitation may cause sustained minor/moderate flooding.

Extreme winds and precipitation. Sturdy structures at risk of severe damage. Entire trees at risk for severe damage. Sustained flash flooding occurs. Life and property threatened.

Models suggest that Sandy will make landfall near the coastal part of Pennsylvania. Regardless of landfall location, THIS WILL BE BIG. Be prepared for long lasting power outages and a threat to life and property. Be able to sustain yourself for at least 3 days without power.

Next update: Between 7-10 PM CT, most likely in the 8:00 PM CT hour.


Hurricane Sandy 2:00 PM Update (10/26/12)

My thoughts from yesterday afternoon still stand: Major Impact situation is unfolding across the coastal regions of the Northeast, where, depending on the strength of Sandy's landfall, winds could surpass hurricane strength.

Here's a region-by-region breakdown for the Northeast:

COASTAL REGIONS (Including Long Island and similar areas)

Winds will likely severely damage trees and property along the coast. Consistent rain will provide a base for SUSTAINED flash flooding. Because land will be covered by water, winds will be enhanced slightly, as winds go faster over water.

INLAND REGIONS (State College, PA and similar regions)

Lesser wind effects will strike, but flooding and consistent, sustained power outages will strike. Trees, houses and other property could be damaged. Life may be threatened.

If you are in the Northeast, you will want to stock up on batteries, flashlights and non-perishable foods and drinks that, if necessary, could sustain you for up to 7 days.



Hurricane Sandy 9:30 AM Update (10/26/12)

Global and regional models depicted below show that a consensus has still not yet been reached. However, the general idea of a Northeast landfall appears set in stone.

Prepare now. I expect widespread power outages, heavy thunderstorms, flash flooding, SUSTAINED flooding, and tree damage. This, in turn, will cause property damage and a serious threat to life.

-Buy batteries and a battery powered radio. This can be used to stay up to date on the latest information.
-Buy food that you can eat in a 7 day period. You will want this in the event a sustained power outage occurs.
-Keep tabs on family members, the elderly, and the disabled.

This will be a dangerous storm. Prepare now to stay as safe as possible.