Friday, August 17, 2012

Tropical Storm Helene Suddenly Forms In 'Last Words' Before Landfall

Tropical Storm Helene suddenly formed today, only miles from the coast of Mexico, in a way displaying its 'last words' before landfall.

Helene is composed of the remnants of Tropical Depression SEVEN, which had formed days ago but dissipated shortly after.

Helene is expected to move northeast and hit Mexico, before quickly dissipating into a post-tropical low after encountering land. This track has some feel of Tropical Storm Ernesto, which also hit the Yucatan Peninsula before making a second landfall in Mexico. Ernesto, however, proceeded southwest.


Invest 94 Forms Off Africa

Invest 94 has just moved off the shores of Africa, and is beginning to move westward as it begins its journey across the Pacific Ocean.

Latest satellite analysis shows Invest 94 poorly organized, with the center apparently well displaced to the east of major convection associated with the invest. Should little development of convection occur near the center, I believe that this system will have a rough time getting itself together.

The center's system is currently progged just above the 10 N line. One can use the 10 N line to help determine if the system will threaten the Caribbean, or curve north into the middle of the Atlantic. Model guidance indicates that a general westward movement appears likely for the next few days before a sudden curve north.

Because it is above the 10 N line, and major convection is displaced to the south, any influence could easily drag the center away from the convection, whereas a more developed invest would have a tougher time being forced around.

Dry air is not too much of a concern at the moment, with the majority of dry air to the north of the invest. However, there is a swath of moderately dry air to the northwest of the invest. Should this dry air remain relatively stationary, and the invest curves north, it would essentially be a nail in the coffin for such a weak and disorganized system.