Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Hurricane Irene Mandatory Evacuation Notice: Dare County, North Carolina


August 24 Evening Exclusive Threat Index

Irene now a Major Hurricane

Irene has reached Category 3 hurricane status as of 4:20 PM CDT August 24.
Maximum sustained winds are at 120 MPH.

August 24: Evacuation Suggestion for Outer Banks, North Carolina

The Weather Centre has officially suggested an evacuation for Outer Banks, North Carolina.
At this time... Irene's combined heavy rain, very high winds and high storm surge are very likely to devastate the Outer Banks. It is strongly advised you evacuate as soon as possible.

Hurricane Irene Models Trending Westward Again (August 24 3:30 Update)

It seems that the models forecasting for Irene are once again shifting west, towards a landfall possibly in the North Carolina/Virginia area. Let's take a look.
Here is the 12z consensus models- basically models which align into a formidable consensus point. We see the consensus keeping Irene just offshore of the East Coast and eventually impacting New England.
But here we have the new 18z consensus. Notice the sudden shift westward towards the North Carolina/Virginia region. Now, since it has only been one run of a westward shift, we are not going to answer any questions on if it will continue west. Again, it's only been one run. if the 0z models come out west again, I will get concerned. You can check out that update sometime around 9 pm CDT tonight if possible.
What we have above is the GFS model 'trends'. What that means, is that several previous tracks have been compiled into one image. The lightest blue lines indicate less recent model runs, while the nearly black line shows the most recent model run. We can see how the GFS dramatically changed course in its track for Irene on the 18z model. Now, the GFS is definitely a reliable model, adding SOME possibility the storm may go westward.
This is the consensus trends themselves. Again, lightest blue are less recent consensus results, while the darkest blue are most recent results. The consensus has shifted west as well. However, it is to be noted that the latest consensus and GFS both take sharper turns east when they are off the shores of the Carolinas.
We will keep you up to speed. Take heed of evacuation notices and suggestions from local authorities, which we will relay on our blog as well.
Remember to review evacuation plans if you live along the east coast.

Hurricane Irene: GFS/ECMWF agree on New England Solution

ECMWF making landfall in New England

GFS making landfall in New England
The GFS and ECMWF now both project for Irene to hit New England into this weekend as a hurricane. While the NHC projects it to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, I believe it may still be on the table that New England may get hit with a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). Either way, If you are on the East Coast, review evacuation plans in the event you may have to evacuate.
NHC forecast