Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Next Week

A strong low pressure system currently over the Aleutian Islands has potential to come onshore the US and ignite a fairly large area of severe weather in the South Central and Southeast US. At this time, we are watching the 18z GFS and we are concerned. Here's a batch of images we picked up from the 18z GFS.
Hour 159
The low pressure system is the 'x' in eastern Oklahoma. We can see how strong this storm will be when it is forecasted in Oklahoma. This storm will have an extending warm sector to the northeast, giving the Northeast region a nice batch of warm weather.
You can see how there will be strong storms ongoing across the Oklahoma region into Kentucky and Tennessee. These storms have more than just this radar image to go on for potential to become severe. Take a look below.
This image above is the jet stream forecast for hour 159 of the 18z GFS. Check out the jet streaks that will be present in Arkansas, Tennessee, into Mississippi. This jet streak has winds of 110 to 130 mph, considered a strong wind speed for the jet stream.

We will have more developments on this system and if it will occur, but as of right now, it looks like the potential definitely is there.

Winter Likely Getting Started Later this Month

We are receiving indications detailing that the winter cold will begin to take hold starting this month. With the NAO still forecast to go negative and the GFS spitting out a monster storm for the North US with huge cold weather following, one can infer that this is a trending item and should carefully be monitored.
Here's the latest 18z GFS showing the storm system with 500 mb heights.
These are NOT temperatures.

Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast Release Reminder

The FINAL 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be Released November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the national forecast.

Regional times are as follows:

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT