Sunday, December 4, 2011

'Snoctober' May Repeat in Mid December

Before we start, let's define the LRC. The LRC is a cycle that is believed to form between October 1 and November 10th. In this timeframe, it is believed that a storm/pattern sets up that will eventually repeat itself around 40-60 days later. This same/very similar pattern continues through the winter and fades into summer. No year is exactly the same, and there is a new pattern every single year.

The Halloween Snowstorm that the Northeast saw this year will be repeating with this year's LRC. It has been determined that the cycle is around 45-50 days long this year. Here's the Halloween Snowstorm as projected from the HPC daily maps.
Halloween Snowstorm seen on East Coast on October 30, 2011.
If we were to match the date of October 30 with about 48 days, we would come up with a date of around December 17, 2011 as another storm to hit the Northeast. While watching developments on the Accuweather Forums (of which is a forum with tons of meteorological skill and knowledge), it appears that the GFS is indeed showing a storm for the Northeast around this timeframe. Below is the forecast.
December 18 Forecast, Lining up With LRC
This will change. I can guarantee that this forecast will change before the date comes around. This does mean that NYC may get snow, like the 'Snoctober' storm brought, or maybe just rain, like the current forecast indicates. Either way, this feature will be returning to the Northeast bother 46-50 days after December 16-19, and every 46-50 days after each cycle (each time it occurs). I do believe that this will occur, but the question is if it will keep the same intensity and track.