Friday, October 7, 2011

Your Wake-Up Forecast: Valid 7 AM (CDT) October 8

Real-Feel temperatures
Your wake up forecast for 7 am tomorrow morning definitely notes a temperature contrast along the cold front extending through the Upper Plains and into the south central Plains region. Just ahead of the cold front will feature wake up temperatures surpassing the 60's- a nice morning to sit outside with a morning cup of coffee. Farther out east features some gradually lowering wake-up temperatures, down into the mid fifties in the Midwest and the 40's way out east by the East Coast.
7 AM 3-Hour Precipitation
At 7 am, it does look like some stronger showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing in north Texas, western Texas regions as well as Oklahoma, with some weaker storms north into Kansas and Nebraska. This will once again be the result of the cold front moving through. While storms at 7 am may not seem entirely plausible, the fact that real-feel temperatures will surpass 60's in the regions highlighted above is enough to create some showers and storms in a given area under this situation.

October 7 Evening Tropical Discussion

We have outlined an area at risk for the potential tropical system going up towards the northeast. While we have also drew up a general track for this system, it is very much subject to change. The area at risk likely will not change if the current model trend continues. We will have an updated track and forecast discussion tomorrow morning.

Cold Front Ignites Severe Storms, Impressive Infrared Satellite Imagery

Infrared Satellite
Current Radar
Severe Thunderstorms are igniting some impressive images on radar and infrared satellite imagery. These storms are forming along a nearly stationary cold front in the area. The cold front is shown clearly on surface observations and shown on current surface analysis.

Surface Temperatures along cold front

Surface Analysis
This cold front is expected to put down extreme amounts of rain in the Oklahoma area, as well as heavy amounts along this cold front area and to the east of where the front is positioned now.
Day 1 Rainfall Forecast
We have also constructed a map of immediate threat and distant threat analysis.

ECMWF/CMC Models Ride the Coast; GFS goes inland

With the latest 12z suite of model data out, we have quickly determined that the consensus for this potential tropical system that may affect the US would be to ride it up the coast. However, the GFS model develops the system near Florida and takes the system inland near Georgia. Here's our interpretation of the track set-up.
We do believe that the track of riding the coast is the better solution (the preferred solution likely will not go as far inland as it is shown on here, we were unable to change it at the final time of publishing), and will go with that for now.
Todays rainfall totals could go above 1.6 inches
Over 10 inches of rain possible for the southern plains in next 5 days

Rainfall Forecast for East US- Tropical System

We have made a map detailing where rain may fall and giving a generalization of where the models currently project this system to go. The NOGAPS/ECMWF are identical in their solutions, having the storm ride the coast instead of go inland. At this point, we are not ruling out any possibilities as it is still several days out, so there remains a lack of knowledge.

October 7- Place to Be

Today's Place to Be is Mansfield, Tennessee