Saturday, June 16, 2012

Mesoscale Discussion #1186

Mesoscale discussion #1186 has been issued for northwestern Missouri and extreme eastern Kansas.

At 12:17 PM CDT, a disturbance was progressing eastward into 2000+ j/kg of instability. This disturbance should easily be able to pop some updrafts and develop them into potentially severe thunderstorms. There is also an old outflow boundary from this morning likely in eastern Missouri and southwest Illinois at this point in time, and that boundary may be able to produce some rogue storms.


Severe Weather May Affect Plains, Midwest Today

It's nice to be back posting regularly. I hope you all saw the new winter forecast update, and thanks to those who did.

Severe weather is looking to target the Plains and Midwest today. Analysis of the region indicates warm temperatures and moist dew point values beginning to surge higher for the day. Temperatures are expected to pass the 90 degree mark in many of these areas.
As the heat increases through the day, the dewpoints are likely to increase as temperatures do, making these areas hot and humid.

This morning, there is a convective system moving across eastern Kansas. notice the band formation that's almost pushing the gray east ahead of the storms. That is an outflow boundary. Outflow boundaries can become ignition pieces for thunderstorms later on, and that may happen in this situation as well.