Friday, April 13, 2012

Significant Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow

In the afternoon Day 2 update, the Storm Prediction Center added a high risk area for east Nebraska and west Iowa. A high risk remains in effect for north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

As of now, a deep trough is slowly moving northeast towards Nebraska. Eventually, a cold front will latch onto this system and pull up the dry line to initiate storms tomorrow evening. It can be expected that supercells will dominate the landscape tomorrow in northern Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

Here is my graphic for tomorrow.
As a raging jet stream carrying a strong storm system moves eastward, a strong storm system will pick up the frontal boundaries in place over west Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The dry line will move east, bumping into at least 2000 j/kg of instability combined with at least 70 knots of shearing will make for a supercell situation.
The exact coverage of severe weather is not known right now, but enough parameters are in place for a tornado outbreak to happen tomorrow.

Supercells will form in central Oklahoma and south east/south central Kansas, where the greatest tornadic risk is. As the cold front overcomes the dry line overnight, these storms will shift to a more linear threat, with squall lines and derechos possible.

Chase Spot: Enid, Oklahoma.

**Be warned that this situation is extremely dangerous and life threatening. Make all preparations now and do not wait until the last minute. Repeat: This is life threatening and very dangerous.**

Discussion on extreme severe weather at 4:00 pm CDT

Discussion will concern Saturday's threat.


A high risk has been issued for Day 2 (tomorrow) by the Storm Prediction Center. This has only happened 3 times before. Not even April 27, 2011 had a high risk on Day 2. That shows you just how bad things could get.

At this point in time, if you are in the high risk and have time, I would suggest you evacuate. This looks to be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, and it is extremely possible that a super tornado outbreak occurs.

DO NOT take this lightly. 'High Risk' is the highest possible category for severe weather. Get your shelter ready now. Gather food and water supplies. I am sincerely concerned for the high threat of loss of life and property tomorrow in the High Risk.

To any amateur storm chasers: Do not chase tomorrow. This is high above what most chasers can chase.