Friday, August 31, 2012

Atlantic Ocean Analysis: August 31 2012

The remnants of Isaac are currently on a northern track, but will be swept east by a frontal boundary also moving to the east. Heavy rains may begin to train over areas as the system takes time to shift directions. Thus, heaviest rains can be expected in Central Illinois.

Kirk is in a weakening phase at this time, not moving to the northeast in accordance with a frontal boundary guiding the tropical cyclone along. I am anticipating Kirk dissipating in the next couple of days, before shooting towards Europe.

Leslie (not pictured)
Leslie's track is not well known at the moment, however a general out to sea consensus has been formulated by the models. The frontal boundary guiding Kirk appears to be the instigator, and this out to sea solution appears very valid.


Major Rains Expected for Illinois

This image shows a side-by-side of two WRF Ensemble members from the University of Illinois' website. Here, we can see that, over the next several days, the remains of tropical cyclone Isaac will be putting down massive totals.

As of now, the target areas appear to be in Central Illinois, where over 7 inches is possible. However, as the member at the right shows, northern Illinois is also at risk for some heavy rains. It will come down to a very sharp cutoff on totals, which will make a 5 mile difference contain potentially a drastic spread.

Flash flooding is a real concern, as tropical systems typically carry very high amounts of moisture with them, thus enhancing chances for torrential rainfall, possibly reaching beyond 2 inches an hour.