Monday, November 5, 2012

Strong Nor'easter To Deliver Snow, Rain To Sandy-Stricken Regions

A strong coastal storm system will be delivering everything from snow to rain to wind in the Northeast, in the same regions already battered by Superstorm Sandy.

The above model image is of precipitation type roughly 3 days out, superimposed on forecasted MSLP values. The MSLP values indicate that the GEM model is predicting this storm system to get as low as 967mb. While that is certainly strong, it pales in comparison to the 940mb observation in Superstorm Sandy. Regardless, this storm will have many impacts, including:

•Cold temperatures
•Accumulating Snowfall
•Heavy precipitation
•Rising waters
•Additional beach erosion
•Heavy winds
•Additional loss of power and other services

This is the 102 hour snowfall forecast from the latest GFS (American) model:

The GFS believes many areas will see amounts below 6 inches, but the spots that do breach that benchmark could see amounts flirting with the 10 inch mark. The worst part of this storm system is that it will strike the areas worst-hit by Sandy. While many areas that still don't have power are in a bad situation, others could be in a much worse situation- those who have an unstable power source. If people badly hit by Sandy have a temporary power source for the time being (i.e. hastily placed power lines) in place of a more permanent power supply system, they may let their guard down, thinking they don't have any power issues to worry about. However, should the power go out, you've got quite a stormy night coming in.

The reason I haven't covered this too much is because storms can leave you uninterested in similar events for a while. For example, after tracking the 2011 Chicago blizzard, I had no desire to forecast snow for a good 5 days after the event, and I think the same is happening here in the wake of Sandy. I apologize, and I want to cover it more, but I have a feeling there won't be too many updates as this system comes along.


Negative PDO Struggling

A comparison of October 3 and October 31 sea surface temperatures show that the previously strong negative PDO (characterized by a warm body of water in the North Pacific with cool waters surrounding it) is now weakening.

We are no longer seeing that arm of extremely above normal water temperatures from Japan through the Northern Pacific. Cool water anomalies are beginning to filter in to the region now, and this is posing problems for what used to be a very solid negative PDO.

Some of you may not know what the PDO is, so let's break it down. The PDO is the Pacific-Decadal Oscillation. It has two phases- positive and negative. The two phases are actually not what you think they are. A negative PDO consists of warm water anomalies stretched across the Northern Pacific, like what was seen on October 3. A positive PDO holds cool waters across the North Pacific, like we are currently seeing fill in.

The positive PDO generally brings cool conditions to the East, while the negative PDO is very warm for the same region. The Gulf Coast gets much of the precipitation during -PDO years, while +PDO years favor a dry East US in general. The +PDO is associated with El Ninos, and the -PDO with La Ninas.


**FINAL CHANCE** Sign Up Here for Personal 2012-2013 Winter Forecasts

This is your FINAL OPPORTUNITY to sign up for personal winter forecasts for your own town!

Here's how it works:

-Comment below with the location(s) you want to get a personal winter forecast for.

**If you have already signed up, I have already included your location.