Friday, October 5, 2012

Northeast May See Snowflakes Fly Monday

The latest GFS model is depicting up to a couple inches of snow to hit the Northeast, with the most accumulations striking the coastal cities, including New York City.

In the next 72 hours, the Northeast could have their first snowfall of the winter season. This pales in comparison to the big October snowstorm last winter, but still gives New Englanders a taste of what's to come.

Some slippery roads and chilly mornings appear likely on Monday, but nothing worse than that. The grass will be white, but not covered. You may want to put some salt down, but again, nothing major is expected.


Strong Disturbance To Create Severe Weather In South Plains; Snow Potential Later On?

This is a projection from the GFS model of 500mb heights- the area where one is most easily able to identify disturbances or high pressure systems.

The circled area is something I am closely watching- and is tied to a new theory I am working on. This disturbance is very strong, and is likely to end up this strong despite the model showing this forecast in the long range. However, notice the swath of blue across the Southern Plains. This is a high pressure ridge that will keep this disturbance from moving east.

Notice the disturbance to the west of Washington and Oregon. This disturbance should move southeast and give the main disturbance the kick it needs to shove itself east. This means that we should be seeing a good severe weather event across the Southern Plains and probably into the Southeast.

A little more on that disturbance to the west of Washington and Oregon- the way the 500mb flow is depicted, this system should crash into northern California. In the wake of a strong disturbance in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, this area of low pressure should move east and may very well provide an opportunity to let some flakes fly in portions of the Midwest. The models will change, but that is what I am seeing at the moment.


Wyoming Mountain Snows To Kick Off Skiing Season

The first major snowstorm for the Wyoming Mountains looks set to hit the region in the next 84 hours if the NAM model proves correct.

Amounts higher than 18 inches of snow appear possible in the north central mountains of Wyoming, with a good 8-12 inches to be found in more southeastern portions of the state. Western Nebraska should get in on the action with as much as 10 inches of snow hitting some areas.

The snow looks to be the skiing season's first, and is sure to attract skiers from all over the country for the first hit on fresh snow. However, the larger ski resorts are likely to view this as a drop in the bucket- many mountains require feet on feet of snow to permit skiing.


Cold Weather Coming To An End

The cold weather that has plagued the North US on-and-off for a week or two now appears to be heading out the door, as the latest NAEFS Ensemble system is projecting a near-normal temperature situation over the next week or two.

Unseasonably cold weather looks to be moving out, as the NAEFS is showing a warming trend across west North America, which could lead to some warmer temperatures drifting east into the more populated regions of the nation. The likelihood of this is actually fairly high, considering the Northern Hemisphere operates in a west-to-east movement, which means warm air moving east is only natural.

The NAEFS did very well last winter and has exceeded expectations so far this summer in its accuracy in forecasting. I find no reason to stop trusting this ensemble set, and I believe that this unusually cold pattern's back is breaking into a new pattern. However, this issue will have to ait for the next Long Range Lookout segment.