Friday, May 25, 2012

Subtropical Storm Beryl Forms

Subtropical Storm Beryl has formed offshore the Southeastern US. I am on my phone, so I cannot explain everything, but I have tracks, intensities, and satellite imagery below.

Cumulus Field Appears Over Kansas

A cumulus field has appeared over Kansas, where the cap of atmospheric stability is either broken or will break soon. There is currently 4000 j/kg, or units, of instability over Kansas. Chasers should be ready in the next 30 minutes for initiation.


Storms Firing In Iowa

Strong thunderstorms are firing in Iowa, as streamline analysis indicates a tight and contrasting wind field in the Iowa region. There is low instability, so these storms shouldn't get too strong.

Tropical Storm Beryl May Form Today Off the Southeast

There is a high probability (70%) that Invest 94 may very well become Tropical Storm Beryl in the next 48 hours, per the National Hurricane Center. Defined showers and thunderstorms are evident in satellite imagery, yet a lacking well-defined circulation area keeps this system an invest.
Tracks for this system are pretty hard to see, but the majority of them do appear to make landfall in the Southwest. Because of this disorganized chaos, I am hesitant to call for a landfalling system. However, I can see enough colors in the picture so that it does appear likely that invest 94 will make landfall in the Southeast.
The models are not agreeing with the NHC idea that Invest 94 will become Beryl anytime soon. In the next 2 days, many models actually drop off in strength, which may be due to their ideas of landfall. The more interesting proposal for strengthening does occur around 5 days out, with the majority of models moving towards Tropical Storm strength at that point in time.