The above picture is how far out the GFSS would like to say the outbreak will affect the US. Obviously, the Ohio Valley and New England are going in for it more than the midwest, so I adjusted the title of this post accordingly.
The arctic outbreak has started. This image is CURRENT from the ECMWF model of higher elevation temperatures. The Canadian air reserves have been tapped, and now the cold begins.
What the EMCWF keeps saying is that it will not go down as far as it was going yesterday. But it is siding with yesterday's GFS and moving the outbreak into New England.