Saturday, September 1, 2012

El Nino Becomes Central Based

Recent observed SST anomalies across the ENSO monitoring regions reveal that the El Nino is now moving into a central-based position, with the warmest anomalies located in Regions 3 and 3.4.

Recent weeks have shown the progression westward of these anomalies may be thanks to a band of above normal 200mb wind anomalies centered conveniently over the El Nino, as shown below.

Should these winds continue, I would not be surprised to see westward motion continue with this El Nino. I would like to see 850mb winds also jump in on this, but at the moment there are little winds to be found over the ENSO region for that level.

The more we see the El Nino move west, the better. Historically, west-based El Ninos have proved to be the ones producing the most snow over the Eastern US- an added bonus to the weak strength of the El Nino that also adds to snowfall forecasts.

While time will tell, I find this to be a very positive sign for those wanting some cold and snow across the Eastern US.