Monday, July 4, 2011

Weather Models Update (7/4)

We have finished updating the basic Weather Models page,
but we do plan to add many more links, thus it will still be under major construction.

CFS Model


CFS Model Month Averages (by month)
Accumulated Snow: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
Precip and SLP: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |

CFS Model 12-Hour Forecasts
Climate Prediction Center ENSO Forecast

Rapid Refresh (RR) Model

The Rapid Refresh (RR) Model is the next generation of the RUC model. It will be officially implemented in August 2011. Very simple model

WRF Model

July 4 Severe Weather Discussion

There is a slight risk of severe weather for most of Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota, Maine, and portions of states by the Carolinas.

A cold front will move through North and South Dakota today. Temperatures in the Dakotas will max out in the 90's. As the cold front moves through, we can expect severe storms to erupt. As these storms erupt, they will eventually go linear and transform into a very large hail and strong gusty wind threat.
Considering the extremely strong updrafts will produce a strong hail threat, it should be expected that the downdrafts from the storms will also be abnormally strong. I would expect damage from those downdrafts and hail.

A different cold front will also move through the Upper Northeast area and create showers and storms. Those storms will likely have some severe threat to it. The storms will be a small linear cluster and eventually move offshore when it's all set and done.

A low pressure system with attached trough and stationary front will move through the Central East Coast. These storms will not be linear and likely be more of scattered storms. Some of these will be stronger, with a couple possibly reaching severe limits.

Today's Hail Outlook

Today's Tornado Outlook

Today's Wind Outlook

Happy Fourth of July!

The Weather Centre would like to wish you and your loved ones a safe and happy 4th of July.
We will be taking a break today and enjoying the day. For your forecast today, click on the link on the right with the blue and red letters.