Thursday, February 16, 2012

2/16/12- Afternoon Briefing

Well, luckily the cold hasn't hit head-on yet, so I should be able to keep on trucking for the rest of the day.

Contents of this Afternoon Briefing:
-Model Initialization Issues
-Surface Analysis
-Side Notes

12z Model Initialization Issues...
ECMWF/GFS initialized with little or no issues.
NOGAPS initialized with little or no issues.
GGEM is not favored this run.

Surface Analysis is showing the big jumble of low pressure systems moving to the east. There appears to be a minimal severe threat for the Southeast for the rest of the day. Strong High pressure will hold in place over the Plains.

Side Notes:
-I was looking over comments, and one indicated that there was a security issue with our Models page. If you did comment that, please comment below indicating what the problem is/was, as I take security very seriously (here is the comment).
-As I indicated, I may be on the verge of getting one of my semi-annual colds. They are very infrequent, but when they happen, they are usually on the stronger side. That said, posting will likely be on the downturn in the next couple days.
-For those curious why I am not favoring the GGEM, It appears that it initialized the system in Michigan wrong. That's about it.


2/16/12- Morning Briefing

Morning everyone. I'm still on the verge of getting a cold, so don't expect too much over the next couple days.

Initialization Issues with 0z models...
GFS and ECMWF appear to have initialized with little or no problems.

Surface Analysis indicates the low pressure system is moving through Michigan, attached via several fronts to another jumble of low pressure systems. I'm thinking that there may be an opportunity for some severe weather if the warm front stretches out further east on the southernmost low pressure system. This opportunity may be increased further by the presence of an intersecting occluded front, warm front and cold front to make an infamous 'triple point', where some of the worst tornadoes have been recorded. I find that both these potential threat indicators will not be doing much to increase the threat as the warm front is too close to the low pressure system which then does not have enough time to bring up unstable air for strong storms.

Potential Future Storms...
There is some 'chatter' over a possible coastal storm over the next 7 days. Glancing at the NCEP ensembles gives me the feeling that this will be too far out to sea if current forecasts verified from the GFS. The ECMWF appears a tad slower and a tad weaker than the GFS for this storm as well, so I will leave the situation alone until a closer timeframe when things become easier to look at.