Sunday, April 17, 2011

Supercell Parameters heightening concern for April 18-20

A look at the latest NAM supercell composite (a map trying to identify where supercells may occur) has caught my eye in a bad way.
As you and me can see, there is a big swath of very elevated supercell risk over much of the Lower Great Lakes into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
That parameter doesn't spike up often, so when it does, there is definite concern.
However, when we look at the Significant Tornado Parameter, it stays well to the south of the Supercell Composite swath.
In conclusion, it appears the risk for tornadoes will be south, while the risk for supercells will be heightened to the north.

Severe Weather Outbreak expected April 19

There is yet another severe weather outbreak forecast for April 19. The US just keeps getting hammered over and over again.
Below is the SPC forecast

As we can see, there is potential for a big swath of the Midwest and South Plains to be affected by severe weather, potentially a tornado outbreak.
No matter whether it's a severe weather outbreak or a rain event, there will be a major potential for flooding.
Below is a forecast rainfall amount for the next 5 days.
This much rain provides an ample amount of concern for flooding, especially in Indiana and Ohio.

April 16 Severe Weather Wrap-Up

In the end, the SPC nailed the high risk situation very well. Perfectly, if I may say myself. The big bunch of red dots are inside what used to be the high risk area.
Unfortunately, such an event turned out at least 5 confirmed injuries and 24 confirmed deaths yesterday alone.