The models are still uneasy on this system, but what is agreed on is the presence of either a negatively-tilted storm or a closed low. Either one can create significant precipitation and a severe weather situation. The ECMWF model is showing a closed low, whereas the GFS model above has the negative tilt within the system. This slight difference could be a huge game-changer for this severe weather set-up, whether it's a bust or an outbreak.
At the moment, I think this event will have a fair severe weather potential, but the lack of strong upper level winds and only moderate lower level winds, I expect this to be a more low-end severe weather event, not as big as it may seem. Model uncertainty only adds to my lack of confidence.
Yellow: Possible Severe Weather