A strong disturbance will move into the Plains and fire off strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The storms should start as supercells, with a tornado threat present. Iowa and Missouri could catch some of the tornadic action. However, as night falls, a more linear storm threat will take shape, and possibly extreme damaging winds will evolve as the primary threat.
Lower level winds will be strong over the expected squall line, which will start in western portions of the orange area in the evening and strike the Midwest overnight. As these lower and mid level winds strengthen with nightfall, any bow echoes that emerge from this situation have great potential to do harm across the region, with damage to structures and a risk to life present.
Tornadoes will be most probable in Iowa and Missouri, where a jet streak and favorable shearing will combine to create a feeding ground for tornadoes. However, given that instability will top out below 2000 j/kg, tornadoes that do form should be weak to moderate. Stronger cells that develop may be able to get a stronger tornado out.
I am declaring Saturday a Storm Action Day across the following states:
This means that people within the mentioned states should make preparations for severe weather. If the models continue to trend strong with this system, I may have to issue a Critical Storm Action Day bulletin, but that will be decided tomorrow around the 12:00-1:00PM CT timeframe. The announcement will be posted on the Facebook page, which you can find on the right sidebar.
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