Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Long Range Christmas Forecast Suggests a Stormy Plains, Midwest

A very preliminary look at the Long Range Christmas Forecast suggests that a strong storm system could make for a messy couple of days across the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes.

Using a pre-determined pattern for this winter (which many of you know as the LRC), tweaked slightly to fit what I believe is in line with observed conditions in the past several weeks, I have determined that there is a likelihood of a stormy Christmas for the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes as a few storm system have the potential to follow on one another's heels, one of which could strike on Christmas Eve/Day.

The Southwest would likely emerge warm and dry from such a situation, while the Plains encounters frigid conditions in the wake of such a fast and strong train of storm systems. Snowfall accumulations would most likely be centered in the Plains and Great Lakes, while the Midwest could be in a dicey situation as far as precipitation potential goes.

This does have the potential to fail, but I believe I have a pretty good idea at the moment of what Christmas could be like. PLEASE DO NOT take this as an actual forecast. If you even want to think about this forecast, take it as ADVICE- we remain nearly 2 MONTHS away from Christmas- a huge timeframe for things to alter this forecast.