Friday, November 4, 2011

As another gift...

Tomorrow we will be releasing a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) forecast tomorrow at 1:30 pm CDT and 2:00 PM CDT respectively.

Spring 2012- Early Look

This is an early look at the upcoming Spring 2012, from The Weather Centre.
This spring we are anticipating a late end to winter in the North Plains and Great Lakes region. This is something we are very confident in, as the very cold temperatures will likely take a while to erase from the region. March will likely be snowy in the northernmost regions of the US, with some rainy spells possible. Late April into Early May should be the start of the turbulent changeover from winter to summer, something usually characterized as a March into April occurrence.
The Southeast US is an area we are closely watching for a potential severe weather event(s) into the spring. Much like last year's concern and validation in April, we are once again concerned with the atmosphere that some more intense severe weather outbreaks may occur.
Into the western regions of the US, as the La Nina continues into the spring most likely, we will continue to see warm and dry conditions, but with less of an iron fist than usual, as we are beginning to think that an El Nino will be possible for next winter (2012-2013). An El Nino is basically the opposite of a La Nina.

FINAL 2011-2012 Winter Forecast is Released Tomorrow!

The FINAL 2011-2012 Winter Forecast will be Released tomorrow, November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the national forecast.

Regional times are as follows:

Nationwide Winter Forecast Release: 12:00 PM CDT
Southwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:10 PM CDT
Southeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:20 PM CDT
Northeast Winter Forecast Release: 12:30 PM CDT
Midwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:40 PM CDT
Northwest Winter Forecast Release: 12:50 PM CDT
South Central Plains Winter Forecast Release: 1:00 PM CDT

Storm Prediction Center Keeps Arkansas, Missouri in Severe Threat 4 days out

note: D5 (day 5)= 4 days out because Day 1 is actually today, Day 2 is tomorrow, etc.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has kept Arkansas and Missouri in the severe weather threat for 4 days out and basically flattened out the severe weather threat a day before as mentioned in yesterday's post, which can be viewed here.
It looks like a strong low pressure system (figure 1) will be present in Oklahoma November 8th. Ahead of it will be a warm sector of warm temperatures. When this cooler air hits the warmer temperatures, some severe storms, added with a strong jet stream (figure 2), may create some tornadic action in the Southern US.
Figure 1

Figure 2