Tuesday, March 3, 2015

March 4-5 Potential Ice Storm

There is an increasing likelihood that accumulating ice will pose a threat to residents in the Southern US.

High resolution precipitation-type forecasts show rain impacting the states of Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama into the Carolinas late on March 4th into the 5th, before widespread icing begins to take hold. Areas affected include northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, central Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Snowfall may then be expected to the north.

Ice accumulations from the GFS model lay down pockets of close to 0.50" in portions of Arkansas and Tennessee, as well as Texas and Louisiana. Model guidance usually doesn't do well with freezing rain forecasts, but amounts over 0.10" are very possible, if not likely, in northern Mississippi into Tennessee.

To summarize:

- An ice storm may impact the South US on March 4th and 5th.
- Accumulations could reach as high as 0.25" of ice in many areas, with isolated higher amounts.