Saturday, January 8, 2011

Siberian Express to Set Up across US.

The Siberian Express is going to set up across the United States.
What is the Siberian Express?

It is when air from Siberia itself comes down into the United States. It creates cold air for a lot of the United States. The Climate Prediction Center has issued images on what the Siberian Express will look like this time around. Images are below.
The first two images are days 6-10. The first one is precipitation, and second one is temperature.

(Green- above normal precipitation. Brown- Below normal.)
(Blue- Below Normal temps. Brown- Above normal temps.

The Siberian Express, while short, may have significant effects on the general North US in terms of precipitation, while the entire US will be affected in the way of colder temperatures.

Projected Tracks for Midwest/East Coast storm

Seen at the above picture, a low will move in the Central US and another in the Gulf. The low in the Central US will weaken as it moves on. Eventually, the two will combine somewhere by the Carolinas.


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Your Evening Weather Report

Good evening everyone and thanks for tuning in to this weather report.

As you look out your window or settle in for a nice movie or book, that's ideal for people in the Northeast, who may receive some light snow accumulations of 1-3 inches. Localized spots may receive more.

Through the rest of the East US, cold fronts will be over the area, enhancing the prospects for cold air. Those with plants still alive outside, those plants aren't going to live forever. Not in this weather.

As we move back on west, let's take a look at the Southwest. High pressure will be over the area, just enough to keep some folks out of any stray clouds. The farther north and east you are from the Southwest, the more likely those clouds become.

Finally, up in the Northwest, clouds, rain, and clear skies are all possible tonight as a low pressure system sits next to a high pressure system. Check your radar if you have any plans tonight in that area.

GFS Model Update 1/8/11 Noon

The GFS Model still keeping same track, straying away from East Coast still.

MidWest/East Coast Storm Model Analyses

(If you don't want to read all of this stuff, go to the bottom of this post for the discussion.)

ECMWF- The ECMWF has taken a big swing upwards. Now, it sweeps across the midsection of the US and emerges near the Carolinas. It then becomes a coast-hugger storm.

GFS- The GFS model, becoming more steady in the last few runs, has decided to move a little towards the Euro model (ECMWF). It is fairly close to the coast, until it gets into New England, where it is far enough away to prevent large accumulations.
For the Midwest portion of the run, it still takes the Gulf Coast track.

CMC- The CMC, which has been unique throughout the last few days, starts off in the Gulf Coast track. Suddenly, the low bounds up north and into New England, while the other low moves along as a coast-hugger. As the East Coast storm intensifies, the low that came north affecting the Midwest is absorbed.

NOGAPS- The NOGAPS, which suddenly went back to a northerly track yesterday, starts out in the Gulf Track. Another low follows it, affecting the Midwest. As the first low moves up the East Coast, the second low is absorbed. It is an extreme coast-hugger storm.

DGEX- The DGEX, which has favored the northern solution in the last many runs, has a low move up into New England, while another low intensifies as a coast-hugger storm. The midwest storm is absorbed.

UKMET- The UKMET, that yesterday favored no north track, now still continues with that idea. It is too far out for the East Coast storm.

WRF- The WRF, favoring a northerly track yesterday, says one low will sweep across the nation's midsection, affecting the Midwest, while another low takes the Gulf Track, and at first is a coast-hugger storm. That is the end of the time frame available.

NAM- The NAM model is too hard to understand clearly, but it does look like it indicates a northern track as well.

Consensus of 6/8 models now agree, up from 5/8 yesterday afternoon, on a northern track.
Based on that, I too will agree with that track, taking a track that cuts through the US midsections, such as a WRF/NOGAPS track.

For the East Coast, consensus is also for a coast-hugger storm. I will agree with that at this time and take a ECMWF/NOGAPS track.