Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Monday, November 29, 2010
So, in this new model image of upper air temps, we can see, compared to earlier forecasts, the GFS is pushing the outbreak farther around all angles of the country. So the GFS has dared to go this far instead of hanging pack in the past model run.
Another update tomorrow.
So we can see the very cold Canadian air flowing in from the North. And some spotty lake effect showers by the Eastern GL.
I also analyzed another picture from the GFS about temps in the range that the first picture from the ECMWF model was indicating.
So the GFS gives us the same scoop about this.
So we have two major models predicting a very cold period to come in the next week.
I did check the ensembles, but they aren't particularly throwing that in. However, with two well known and reputable models versus several unheard of models, I believe that there is quite a chance that the GL/MW area could see an arctic outbreak in about 6 or 7 days.
Sunday, November 28, 2010
So, in hour 30, the AVN was tracking the storm that had come from the Northwest faster than the WRF was. The AVN had the front edge of the storm in the Dakotas and the WRF hadn't got there yet.
In hour 36-42, the AVN keeps moving along, prompting a squall line?? to form in Iowa while the WRF is only begining to do that in hour 42.
In hour 48, both models have caught up with each other, but the WRF remains a tad slow. Both models show another storm from the NW come in. The AVN shows higher overall totals in the NW than the WRF.
In hour 60, both models are on the same page in all levels.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Okay. So above, we have the original image of forecast low tracks and ensembles from the HPC.
Friday, November 26, 2010
We'll start off with the ensembles. And boy are there a lot.
Going into the first two days, all the ensembles show a low coming onshore from the Northwest weakening as it does so. With all the members approving of this, I will approve as well.
In the following two days, some models take the low strengthening in Canada and others show it to stay disorganized. In all cases, a cold front forms a squall line starting in Canada and extending through Madison, Chicago. What really surprised me though, was how, in just one ensemble, there was a tight area of low pressure right centred in the North Illinois area. However, since it is just one ensemble, I will not worry much about it, but will watch it.
In the 4-6 day range, right away in day 4, 9 out of the 12 ensembles report a well defined area of low pressure in the Canada region. Additionally, some of the members keep the squall line of precip moving quicker than the others.
Continuing on in the same 4-6 day range, then 4 ensembles reported a low pressure centred in the Canada region above the Great Lakes. One member even took it out farther into Canada. By now, the squall line is taking different shapes with different members. 2 ensembles already have the squall line off shore while everyone else is moving along around the Carolinas north and south in a roughly defined line.
Still in the 5 day area, all but one member of the 12 ensembles are reporting the squall line moving out. They are also differing on the placement of a low pressure. One puts it above the Great Lakes in Canada, while another puts the same area in the clear. From now on this'll be a wild ride. A couple members even have the low breaking off into two weaker lows.
Finally, as the 4-6 day range ends, the members have taken the squall line away and put lows in Canada anywhere from East to Central Canada regions.
For the 6-10 day region, the models will likely by hugely different. By now, all models have the squall line far out to sea. But the lows are still all over the place. Even the thickness levels vary by a lot of miles.
Moving 12 hours on, nearly all the models are showing yet another squall line possibly begin to form. The Great Lakes and the Texas-Louisiana regions are the first to start off. Right now, the Great Lakes precip is a toss-up, likely landing on a rain/ice mix. Or a Snow/ice mix. Again, thicknesses are all over the place. The models have taken their own opinions.
12 hours later, the supposed squall line has not formed. The Great Lakes region is petty much half and half on whether it's precip or not. The majority of the thicknesses show the line fairly close to the Lower Great Lakes and in the South Illinois/Central Illinois area. This leads me to think that any precip in that area would be a wintry mix.
12 hours ahead, the models finally agree on something: another low pressure comes in from the Northwest. Most place it as a pretty organized storm, but the holdouts place it as somewhat disorganized. Either way, the members that do show Chicago receiving snow say that the thickness will create a rainy event possibly. The non-precip members keep the thickness down south. Meanwhile, some models place the Northwest low dividing into two areas of precip and then moving off.
Another 12 hours passes. The models mostly hit pretty much all of the Great Lakes with a precip area. I would say a snow/ice/ rain? event. So maybe rain to snow in Chicago, snow showers in Madison, snow showers in Detroit, etc. One member has a low suddenly exploding in Louisiana. I deny that because it's only one member.
Another 12 hours. Just about every one now agrees on some sort of precip hitting the Great Lakes, with it possibly impacting the Gulf Coast area south of the West Great Lakes. A heavy majority of the models still keep that Northwest low in the mix, but one member has that low combine into the mostly Wisconsin precip. I think there will be two lows: One in the GL (Great Lakes), and one in the NW (Northwest). Some models still dont bring precip to Madison or Detroit.
Continuing on to the end, the ensembles end up going in different directions. Most bring some precip through the East Coast while others declare a low suddenly booming in the Heartland. All the models agree on yet another NW low coming through. Most models project precip for either the Great Lakes or the South. Some don't have any at all except for the NW low and the precip moving out to the Atlantic.
In the end, the models keep ushering in more and more NW lows and dragging them through the North US. Some models bring some rain into the South, while others don't bother.
WE'RE NOT DONE YET!!!!!!
Now we go to the Long Range GFS.
The LR GFS shows the Great Lakes getting hit with a snow/ice storm with maybe a hint of rain right off the bat. That low then trails off to the Atlantic where it stalls and becomes a monstrosity. It even gives the GL region a backlash from an 'arm' that sweeps the area from the storm.
Well, that's finally it.
JUST KIDDING!!! One more thing: Meteogram.
Chicago's meteogram says a rain storm with possible thunderstorms with high instability on November 30th. But the meteogram doesn't show convective precip...hmmm....
Moving on, another rain storm impacts the area going into the 4th of December. If that turns out to be snow, it'll be a big one.
Into the last one, it goes off with rain on Dec. 5-6th then convective snow (thundersnow) periodically until December 12th.
This has been your Long Range Ensemble Run, your Long Range GFS run, and your meteogram all in one. Too much for one post, eh? Yeah, I thought so too.
Alright, have a good day/morning/night/evening!!
So, I ran an ensemble for the precip for the next 2 and a half days.
There are two models - the WRF and the AVN (NCEP).
About a day or so from now, the WRF has the front dissipate a bit quicker than the AVN shows it dissipating.
Also, 2 days from now, the WRF has a low in the Northwest pull in more organized than the AVN projects it to.
In the end of the run, both models show the low to be somewhat weak as it's over the Northwest.
What do I think?
Well, the AVN was more detailed in the line of thickness, so i'm veering towards that the low will weaken as it moves onshore.
Updates possible tomorrow.
- A normal thunderstorm on the leading edge of a cold front or warm front that can either form in a winter environment or one that runs into cool air and where the precipitation takes the form of snow.
- A heavy synoptic snowstorm in the comma head of an extratropical cyclone that sustains strong vertical mixing which allows for favorable conditions for lightning and thunder to occur.
- A lake effect or ocean effect thunderstorm which is produced by cold air passing over relatively warm water; this effect commonly produces snow squalls over the Great Lakes.
- A cold front containing extremely cold air aloft, steepening lapse rates and causing strong vertical movement which allows for favorable conditions for lightning and thunder to occur
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Friday, November 19, 2010
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME ------ ----------------------- -- -------------- ------- 11.00 EDEN PRAIRIE MN HENNEPIN 1030 AM 11.00 1 SSW WYOMING MN CHISAGO 0400 PM 10.10 NEW HOPE MN HENNEPIN 0102 PM 10.00 MONTGOMERY MN LE SUEUR 1130 AM STILL SNOWING. 10.00 3 N FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 0104 PM SO FAR 10.00 SW BURNSVILLE MN DAKOTA 0216 PM 9.80 CHANHASSEN MN CARVER 0510 PM 9.50 NEW MARKET MN SCOTT 0258 PM 9.40 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0445 PM 9.40 RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 0510 PM 9.20 ST LOUIS PARK MN HENNEPIN 0605 PM 9.00 3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS MN HENNEPIN 1243 PM STORM TOTAL SO FAR 9.00 CHISAGO CITY MN CHISAGO 0301 PM 8.90 2 W PRIOR LAKE MN SCOTT 1239 PM 8.60 MADELIA MN WATONWAN 1025 AM 8.50 1 SE CHASKA MN CARVER 0112 PM 8.50 EDINA MN HENNEPIN 0505 PM 8.30 5 SE ELK RIVER MN ANOKA 0148 PM 8.20 WACONIA MN CARVER 0426 PM TOTAL SO FAR 8.00 WINNEBAGO MN FARIBAULT 1010 AM STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY. 7.50 2 ESE MINNETONKA MN HENNEPIN 1115 AM GLEN LAKE AREA. 7.30 BLOOMINGTON MN HENNEPIN 1248 PM 7.00 GLENCOE MN MCLEOD 0150 PM 7.00 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0335 PM 6.80 2 NNE RUSH CITY MN CHISAGO 1030 AM 6.50 1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH MN DAKOTA 1115 AM 6.50 2 SSW CAMBRIDGE MN ISANTI 1239 PM 6.50 WOODBURY MN WASHINGTON 0505 PM 6.20 ST PAUL MN RAMSEY 0505 PM 6.00 JANESVILLE MN WASECA 1027 AM 6.00 5 S FARMINGTON MN DAKOTA 0505 PM 5.50 LEWISVILLE MN WATONWAN 1015 AM STILL SNOWING. 5.40 CHAMPLIN MN HENNEPIN 0335 PM 5.00 1 E CUMBERLAND WI BARRON 0205 PM 4.70 5 NE FOREST LAKE MN CHISAGO 1245 PM 4.50 2 N ELKO MN SCOTT 0139 PM IN PAST 6 HOURS...7.5 ON GROUND 4.00 CLAYTON WI POLK 1230 PM FOUR INCH BRANCH DOWN DUE TO WEIGHT OF SNOW. LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING AT TIMES. 4.00 MORA MN KANABEC 0211 PM 3.80 11 NE WARMAN MN KANABEC 0150 PM STILL SNOWING. 3.00 1 ENE INVER GROVE HEIGH MN DAKOTA 1237 PM SNOW DEPTH 8.5 3.00 WNW FARIBAULT MN RICE 0112 PM 1.70 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0313 PM 1.00 7 S HILLMAN MN MORRISON 0130 PM MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Below is our first graphic from the National Weather Service. We can see how heavy the snow is. The pink areas are heaviest, and lesser amounts in purple.
Below is the National graphic for today from the HPC; part of the NOAA. We can see the low pressure is right there, providing the energy. I'll be honest, this is possible snow day material, and definitely snow fort material.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Friday, November 5, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,
or CPC. You guys rock!)
For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.
The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on
e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, anddefinitely warmer down south.
However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n
orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.
I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.
PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION
Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.
No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.
La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.
Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.
Our first area, the Northwest, is not revised too much. We still expect it to be a stormy winter with not much in the way of snow. Much more rain. However, in addition to the snow in the mountains, areas relatively in or close to mountains should expect some snow and even sleet at times.
I Expect much flooding in these areas as well.
This area, the Great Lakes, was not changed too much. I revised the lake effect snow to put more areas within its boundaries. I am confident that this was a very true revision that needed to be made. The Heaviest Snow zone remains the same, but i do expect some conflict out west with the Lake effect snow and the Icy Zone. I expect a bit more ice in the lake zone out west, with still increased snow.
Everyone else in the Heaviest Snow zone should still prepare for a very harsh winter.
For people in the Dakotas, i lessened the range of the Heaviest Snow range and pulled it back. I also added a bit more range into the Icy Zone out west as well.
In our last area, I made quite a few revisions. I boosted up the Icy Zone range into New England in the southern area. The orange area means the Heaviest Snow zone. I extended it into this area because of the Canadian winter snow forecast. It expects heavy snow in areas like this. So, I modified it for that situation. Temperature swings still expected in the Icy Zone, probably affecting all of New England in the process.