Monday, October 22, 2012

Siberia Rapidly Building Snow Pack

A recent burst of snow in Siberia, Russia, has drastically aided in increasing overall snow cover anomalies over the northern Hemisphere, as the crucial month of October progresses into its final weeks.

It is known that there is a correlation between October Siberian snow pack anomalies and North American winter snowfall anomalies. Last year, we observed below normal snowfall anomalies in October over Siberia with a sudden burst in November. However, because October was below normal, the US ended up with a very warm and snowless winter.

This winter, there is hope. I hold confidence that Siberia is giving us some good information here as far as storytelling the upcoming winter. I will culminate this development with my other thoughts on the winter in early November.


Tropical Storm Sandy Forms; Models Out To Lunch

Tropical Storm Sandy has formed in the Caribbean, and is shown at the latest satellite image as a big mess of showers and thunderstorms. If we take a closer look, however, we can see that these showers and storms are actually moving in a cycling fashion, which would indicate the presence of a center of circulation.

I do not feel comfortable going over the models today, as each model has taken massive steps away from yesterday's runs, telling me that this is just a bad situation for the models to be involved in. However, as the recon aircraft investigated Sandy today, it did gather crucial data that will be fed into the 0z model suite tonight. Whatever forecasts come out of the models should be taken against previous forecasts, as data from inside Sandy is a crucial tool.

If you really want to see the models, none of which I endorse at the moment, they are below.

ECMWF, Hour 240

CMC, Hour 144


GFDL Hour 126

NOGAPS hour 132