Sunday, March 27, 2011

March 27 Tomorrow's Forecast

Tomorrow, an occluded front, trough and cold front will be creating showers and storms in the Southeast. It would be right to think that some of the storms may become, at best, only slightly severe.
That occluded front will trail back to a low pressure system in New Mexico. It will be creating precipitation in the Rockies, as will another low pressure system north of the first.
Snow and icy conditions will exist in the Rockies with rain in lower elevations.
The West Coast will finally get a break with only rainy conditions in slight areas.
Strong low pressure off the coast off Washington State will create clouds.
Strong high pressure will pump cold air into the Midwest, Plains and Great Lakes.
Snow showers will exist in the Northeast.
The Southeast will be somewhat cooler after the showers and storms, as is expected.

Storms in South Georgia to Fade

Storms currently occurring in South Georgia will be fading through this evening without the support of the lower level jet stream. Click here for a Weather Explained article on the lower level jet stream.

The lower level jet stream is currently located in North Georgia and not supporting the storms to the south.

However, should any storms develop in North Georgia, those may be an issue.

Weather Explained: Lower Level Jet Stream

What is a lower level jet stream?
It is a river of fast moving air in the lower level of the atmosphere, while toe big jet streams are in the higher atmosphere.

What does it do?
In the spring-summer time, the lower level jet stream will amplify itself and storms around it in the Plains at nighttime, explaining why storms are sometimes stronger at night.
It can rapidly transport moisture and warm temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico north.

So the only thing it does is use wind to make storms stronger at night?
With the rapid transport of moisture, it is able to quickly pump up storms and feed it until the jet moves away.

What does it look like?
The white area is the lower level jet stream.

Storms in the Southeast raising Concern

A line of what may be supercells in the Southeast are raising concern after wind shear values indicate that rotation in storms is not out of the question.
Below is the radar image along with risks from the SPC.
Those storms have been intensifying. Below is also the severe thunderstorm watch issued for these storms.
Almost like a rash, these storms are striking across the Southeast. Judging how they are singular-celled, they do have a slightly higher potential for tornadic activity. Below are current warnings within the watch area.
While tornado probabilities are low, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to the wind shear. The wind shear is over what is needed for reasonable thinking of supercell formation.
We will be monitoring this.