Monday, August 6, 2012

Mid Atlantic In Severe Weather Threat for August 10

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a severe weather risk for the Mid Atlantic on Friday, August 10, as a major storm system digs into the Great Lakes.

The ECMWF is projecting a major storm system to drop into the Great Lakes and fire up some strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid Atlantic.
The system is not negatively tilted, but is also not positively tilted. Thus, the severe threat won't be horrible, but it also won't be too modest. Now, 850mb winds are pretty light in the outlined region above, which would not necessarily suggest a good severe weather event. However, 700mb winds are on the stronger side, which could enhance a tornado threat but also a damaging wind threat. Should this happen overnight, the lower level jet stream would be stronger, giving storms an edge to the severe weather threat.

It will be interesting to see how this threat evolves, with the GFS not showing a major instability sector and the ECMWF not showing intense lower level winds.