THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. The Final 2012-2013 Winter Forecast still stands- this is an update on my thoughts but is NOT composed of my official thoughts... yet.
I am forecasting above normal snowfall for much of the Plains, Great Lakes, Midwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the Northeast, with the core of the snow hitting the Midwest and Plains. Here's the lowdown on why:
1) Lezak Recurring Cycle. As I posted in this recent post, there has been a favoring of precipitation over the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Midwest. This means that there should be quite an active period for those regions at least twice this winter, possibly bringing some very heavy snows with them. Additionally, the presence of cold air that may be tied into the LRC would enhance snowfall potential over these regions.
2) Possible Rebounding La Nina. As I posted today at this link, there is a new trend of cool water anomalies just off the coast of South America and likely associated with the ENSO pattern. A La Nina favors the Midwest and Ohio Valley for snowfall. Based on how global wind patterns have been characteristic of a La Nina recently, it is possible we could see La Nina effects in the USA as well, hence the 'core of snow' region lodged in the mentioned areas.
3) No More El Nino. The El Nino is gone, and there are very little effects of an El Nino worldwide. Because an El Nino favors the East Coast for snowfall, this reduces the chances for above normal snow.
I would like to remind everyone that THIS IS AN UPDATE and DOES NOT RESEMBLE my OFFICIAL THOUGHTS. My official thoughts remain in the Final 2012-2013 Winter Forecast. I will have my latest official thoughts out by the end of this month.