Sunday, June 3, 2012

Tropics Should Be Watched in Next 7 Days

The HPC has put out a forecast indicating that a stationary front is to be in place just along the Gulf Coast. With any front comes the potential of storms, but in tropical waters, those same storms may very well ignite some sort of tropical system.

Around this timeframe, the ECMWF, ECMWF Ensembles, and GFS appear to form a weak system in the Gulf of Mexico. This system would then quickly shift east northeast out to sea, possibly developing into a strong tropical cyclone as it does so, as indicated by the Hour 168 image shown below from the ECMWF.

Severe Weather Targets Eastern Kansas Today

General severe weather risk

Risk of a tornado
There is a risk of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in eastern Kansas today, as a warm front lifts north across the area to produce scattered strong thunderstorms.

I am a bit skeptical, because the latest WRF and WRF Ensembles I have seen seem to put the storms more into Oklahoma than Kansas. It should be noted that the NAM also shows this solution.

I will keep up to date with the RAP model forecasts and post new information on the Facebook page.