Today's Featured Posts: Thanksgiving Potential Wintry Storm System and November 20-22 Potentially Significant Winter Storm (Updated TODAY) ALSO: Long Range Forecast (Posted 11/19)
Monday, November 1, 2010
(These oscillations are all data from the Climate Prediction Center,
or CPC. You guys rock!)
For our 2nd update, we will be focusing in on several Oscillations, including this one. The Arctic Oscillation is an atmospheric pattern. Simple enough. However, I know little about any oscillations we will be discussing. I do know how to read maps though. So let's begin.
The CPC data runs several forecasts. I took the liberty of scanning them over, and found they varied quite a bit. Long range, the forecasts indicated a turn to negative, but on
e also had a positive. A Positive period is when there are warmer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. I had taken note of the NOAA's forecast, seeing as they indicated slightly warmer temperatures may be in the northern tier of the country, anddefinitely warmer down south.
However, Accuweather gets right into that and says 'colder and snowier' for the n
orthern tier. These, both being great services, struck me as mystified. Both Positive and negative had characteristics for this winter's forecasts. Below is the images of positive and negative outlooks. The positive phase is on the left; the negative phase is on the right.
I have decided that it would be more correct at this time to veer towards the negative side at the right. I am predicting a NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. However, that may surely change. Stay posted.
NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO)
The above graphic shows the phases of a North Atlantic Oscillation. I looked at this cautiously. But look closely at New England in the negative phase. Looks like last year with the Snowicane doesn't it? Yes it does. I believe we are either going to be in a LIGHT POSITIVE PHASE or LIGHT NEGATIVE PHASE for this winter. Certainly not a snowicane again. And the CPC data agrees with me.
PACIFIC NORTH-AMERICAN OSCILLATION
Looking over the CPC's forecasts, it seemed that most of them were pointing for a Positive phase in this oscillation. In the ensembles, they all pointed to eventually going towards negative after being positive. Seeing this data, I analyzed the phases for Positive and Negative Pacific North-American oscillations. Unfortunately, there were none, so I have declared a TEMPORARY POSITIVE PHASE, followed by a NEGATIVE PHASE.
No information regarding this. However, the outlooks are saying the current positive run will fall into a BRIEF NEGATIVE PHASE, then turning into a POSITIVE PHASE.
La Nina will be in full swing, creating this winter's snow and weather. That is all.
Thanks for viewing my second edition of my 2010-2011 winter forecast! Updates to sections will be posted whenever new data comes in. They will be called '2nd version; whatever-number update'.
Our first area, the Northwest, is not revised too much. We still expect it to be a stormy winter with not much in the way of snow. Much more rain. However, in addition to the snow in the mountains, areas relatively in or close to mountains should expect some snow and even sleet at times.
I Expect much flooding in these areas as well.
This area, the Great Lakes, was not changed too much. I revised the lake effect snow to put more areas within its boundaries. I am confident that this was a very true revision that needed to be made. The Heaviest Snow zone remains the same, but i do expect some conflict out west with the Lake effect snow and the Icy Zone. I expect a bit more ice in the lake zone out west, with still increased snow.
Everyone else in the Heaviest Snow zone should still prepare for a very harsh winter.
For people in the Dakotas, i lessened the range of the Heaviest Snow range and pulled it back. I also added a bit more range into the Icy Zone out west as well.
In our last area, I made quite a few revisions. I boosted up the Icy Zone range into New England in the southern area. The orange area means the Heaviest Snow zone. I extended it into this area because of the Canadian winter snow forecast. It expects heavy snow in areas like this. So, I modified it for that situation. Temperature swings still expected in the Icy Zone, probably affecting all of New England in the process.