Thursday, November 29, 2012

Christmas 2012 May Be Cold, Snowy For Some

Image from WeatherBell Models.
The long range CFS model is forecasting a potentially cold and snowy Christmas week, as we enter the final days of November and launch into December. The above image shows the CFS model forecast for the December 21- December 26 timeframe, which does include Christmas. The CFS is projecting that a very strong cold blast will break into the nation, bringing below-average temperature anomalies to near double-digits, especially near the Ohio Valley. The warm temperature anomaly in the West is supportive of a positive PNA pattern, so such a solution as pictured above does not seem that far-fetched by looking solely at this image.

Image from WeatherBell Models.
This is the forecast snow depth for the same time period. The image shows 4 ensemble members forecasting the maximum snow depth by the December 21 - December 26 period. I might as well give a synopsis of my own on this forecast before you get too excited. First off, I highly doubt that San Antonio Texas will be under 4-6 inches of snow on Christmas, so I prefer to discount the upper-right corner image. Also, the idea of 1 foot of solid snow from the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast and Great Lakes is not that realistic. The most realistic forecast I see on here is on the top-left, where over a foot of snow is coating the Mid-Atlantic, with more in the Northeast.

So, the CFS v2 is projecting a cold and snowy Christmas. However, I don't trust the CFS model, as it does not have the best track record, but it certainly is interesting to see!