Thursday, September 20, 2012

Severe Weather Once Again Eyes Northeast for Saturday

Warm-Air sector: Air under the influence of a warm front.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for Saturday, September 22 in the Northeast. This comes as a cold front invades a warm-air sector and produces a risk of severe thunderstorms.

Model guidance is in fair agreement, with all models forecasting the cold front moving into the region on Saturday. All models being investigated this afternoon have timing issues, as far as placement of precipitation goes. Main concern is how strong models are progging this event to be. NAM is strongest, with heavy precipitation being marked over the outlined region above on Saturday evening. GFS and CMC are both more modest, and this is the way I prefer to go. GFS and CMC contain timing issues within themselves, as GFS is slightly faster than the NAM/CMC. Prefer to take a blend of CMC for timing and GFS for strength of storms. This would bring a moderate line of storms into the Northeast in the evening hours, specifically around the 6-8 PM ET timeframe.