Thursday, December 23, 2010

Christmas Nor'Easter Update 12/23

Right now, it's looking like the Nor'Easter will NOT happen. But remember: it's still a ways away. Things will change, and you can find out all about the Nor'Easter here at The Weather Centre.

Christmas Storm December 23 Analysis

Right now, general consensus is that precip area of about 4-6'' will occur in Central IL back into Iowa and skimming Missouri and Minnesota. Banding of snow is occurring in Central IL, with snowfall rates increasing , thus decreasing visibility.

Back south, models have set track so storm will move through N. Gulf of Mexico. Precip hotspots look to be East Texas through South Louisiana, then tapering off.

Trouble arises w/ potential nor'easter situation.
General thinking ATTM is storm missing Upper Northeast and moving out to sea. Will have to watch closely.

Dec. 23 Graphic

Winter Weather Advisories Up


Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the Midwest. The below map shows the purple advisories.

Dec. 23 Afternoon SNOWCAST

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NCEP Ensemble (most recent)


Tighter lines= more confidence.

GFS Accum. Snow forecast (Christmas Storm)

ETA Accum. Snowfall using 10:1 ratio (84 hours)

ETA 3-hour Snowfall using 10:1 ratio





Accumulated GFS Precip thru New Years Storm

Potential Nor'Easter Update

The models are bringing it together that the storm may not happen.
The NAM disagrees, as does the CMC.
However, the GFS likes the Nor'Easter idea.

GFS 120 hour accumulated precip

NOGAPS 48 hour precip forecast

NAM Most Recent QPF

GEM Most Recent QPF

JMA most recent QPF for next 5 days

Dec. 23 morning SnowCAST

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