Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Midwest Potential Storm Analysis

Right now, the models aren't friendly with the concept of a Midwest storm. This is due to a high pressure system that will be placed in the Great Lakes.
All models are taking the low south into the Gulf of Mexico, as displayed in the below picture.
Yes, there could be a Nor' Easter, and I will mention that in a later post.
If the high pressure isn't over the Great Lakes, the following track may occur.
However, do not lose faith in this storm, Midwesterners.
The models are initiating what is known as a 'Midrange swing.'
This is when the models suddenly dive south.
Sometimes, they will work their way back up north, and other times not.

For my opinion on if it will work its way back north, I think I won't say anything at the moment.
I will provide my opinion when the storm gets onshore to the US.

We are still a week away.
There is, and I do not exaggerate this, PLENTY of time for the models to change.

I will provide a SNOWcast eventually, so stay tuned to the Winter Storm Page and new posts for more information.

Midwest Storm Model Update 1/5 afternoon

ECMWF leading the pack, taking low into Gulf once again.
GFS sticking to Euro, likely exaggerated.
NOGAPS in the Gulf.
CMC also in the Gulf of Mexico.
DGEX also having low pressure in Gulf.
UKMET likely taking low into Gulf as well.

This is what meteorologists refer to as the 'midrange swing': When model tracks suddenly take a dive. Sometimes, they will work back up to their original spots.
We will have to see.
But since there's only one option, I will take the ECMWF/NOGAPS track.

Midwest Storm Potential Update #3

This is the model update for this morning.

GFS- One low goes by Gulf, another forms by Ohio Valley. Heaviest snow in Ohio Valley.
ECMWF- Takes low through Gulf.
DGEX- Takes low pressure further south close to Southeast US.
CMC- Starts to take low north, but suddenly dissipates. Other low stays in Gulf.
NOGAPS- Brings low into Ohio Valley from the Gulf.

At this time, first will dismiss NOGAPS because it is only one out of the others.
Will also dismiss the first portion of the CMC, and second portion of the GFS.
Overall consensus is to provide an ECMWF track, taking the low through the Gulf.