Sunday, December 19, 2010

The Tree is up!


611th Post

Supposed to be the 600th post, but it's the 611th now.


(from wxcaster)
Light Red: 12-15''
Red: 15-18''
Anything below light red is 2 inches down each color, except for dark green. then down by 1 inch.

PROS CONS Christmas Day Snowstorm

*GFS Has been moving up in last 2 runs for storm track
*GFS has been increasing snow amounts w/ time.
*Weather community has been predicting storm for last at least 3 days.

*NCEP Ensemble not having much confidence.
*SREF Ensemble with no confidence.
*Overall confidence somewhat low.

18z GFS Run (NCEP/EMC)

The below image is showing the track of the Christmas Storm. It has moved up farther north, enabling a bigger chance for snow for the Illinois/S. Wisconsin areas.

Christmas Storm In-Depth Analysis

below image from wxcaster
It's small, so I'll explain the colors.
Yellow: 3-4''
Light Green: 4-5''
Dark Green: 5-6''
Grey: 6-8''
Dark Blue: 8-10''
Light Blue: 10-12''
Red-Pink: 12-15''

While the storm is fairly far away, the weather world has been predicting this one for at least the last 3 days. That's 12 model runs. 12 opportunities for the storm to change. But it didn't. Based on that ALONE, it's a good idea to mention it. Besides, who wouldn't want a snowstorm on Christmas? (Other than travelers.)

So the GFS is printing out high totals. It has been exaggerated before, but the below image will change your mind. It is an image for the Christmas time period.
And there could be more. To find the amount of snow from a color, multiply the number on the legend by 10 for your average snow amount.

Christmas Storm Images & Analysis

First Image is HPC, Second is Japan's Model, 3rd is the Canadian Model. The Japanese and Canadian models are actually totals for tomorrow's storm and the Christmas storm.

People have been predicting this one a long time. However, not much can be said for the tracks. But major indications point towards a very snowy Christmas for the Midwest.

GFS Dec. 19-22 Most Recent Run

NAM Dec. 19-22 Most Recent Run

Dec. 19-22 Storm Images

First Image is accumulated precip in water equivalent for today until the next 2 days. A more in-depth analyses will be issued shortly.

Christmas Snowstorm Images (VERY Preliminary)

Short Range Forecaster issues SnowMap

Yes, I have decided that the time has come to issue a SnowMAP for tomorrow nights-Tuesday's storm. This is preliminary, and will be edited tonight. This is your Short-Range Forecaster for The Weather Centre here to give you some updates on this storm. Right now, the NAM is printing out amoutns that have been changing every run. The GFS became unstable last night, so there's not much to rely on. But at the current thinking, a general consensus is at least a couple inches for areas in the 3-6'' area. People in the 6'' area are nearly secured that spot, but a couple more model runs will assure it.

HPC QPF, Winter Graphics

NAM 06z Model Runs