2011 Europe Spring Forecast

UPDATED MARCH 1st.

Due to a lack of information, the Weather Centre mostly based this forecast off of this past winter's forecast, as well as El Nino comparisons to La Nina in Europe.

The Weather Centre is anticipating a fairly similar season to the last winter. In the way of temperatures, The Weather Centre believes that lingering winter cold will exist for a short period, then the remainder of spring should be average to slightly below average. The North and Northwest sections of Europe may be under a slightly above average temperature period to moderately above average. Below is the official Weather Centre Temperature Graphic.

In the way of Precipitation, above normal precipitation should exist across the Southern portion of Europe. It will be very similar to this last winter, but the swath of heaviest precipitation should be farther south and more spread out. The Below normal temperatures will be in the north Europe sections. However, bursts of above normal precipitation is possible in North Europe, and especially in Northwest Europe. Below is the official Precipitation map.

Model Comparison March 1st

This morning's discussion

Model Analyses

-ECMWF: Has strong low track through South IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. South Track.

-NOGAPS: NOGAPS goes into Central IL heading northeast.

-GEM: Takes ECMWF track, but rain/snow line collapses down into Central IL. South Track.

-GFS: Takes strong low pressure through North IL. North Track.

-DGEX: Takes Low through Central IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. Arctic air quickly follows, making backside precip all snow.

Consensus: DGEX and NOGAPS are in good agreement with each other on a middle track, while ECMWF and GEM are in agreement with each other. Will have to make GFS an outlier, and at this time, will go with a NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.

Current Model Analyses with differences

-ECMWF: Low tracks through Central IL. Rain Snow line remains in WI/IL border.

-NOGAPS: Much weaker low tracks to South IL. Rain/Snow line now in WI/IL Border.

-GEM: Eerily similar solution to past weekend storm: 2 low pressures. North low is in North IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL Border.

-GFS: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL border.

-DGEX: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow line in WI/IL border.

-WRF: Low through Central IL. Rain/Snow Line north of Wisconsin/Illinois Border.

Consensus: NOGAPS and ECMWF suffer large changes. Luckily, GFS/DGEX/ECMWF/WRF have good agreement on placement of low pressure. Additionally, Rain/Snow line seems to be in excellent agreement for WI/IL border, the only exception being the WRF.

Will go on consistency and take DGEX forecast.

March 1st Forecast Discussion

Model Analyses

-ECMWF: Has strong low track through South IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. South Track.

-NOGAPS: NOGAPS goes into Central IL heading northeast.

-GEM: Takes ECMWF track, but rain/snow line collapses down into Central IL. South Track.

-GFS: Takes strong low pressure through North IL. North Track.

-DGEX: Takes Low through Central IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. Arctic air quickly follows, making backside precip all snow.

Consensus: DGEX and NOGAPS are in good agreement with each other on a middle track, while ECMWF and GEM are in agreement with each other. Will have to make GFS an outlier, and at this time, will go with a NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.