What does it matter that the track shifted north a bit?
Any slight shift will have dramatic results to the eventual landfall and intensity of TS Ernesto. In the 4 PM CT update, which was slightly farther south, Ernesto would have likely made landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, and then a toss-up between the Gulf of Mexico's coast and Mexico for a second landfall.
In the newest, slightly north update, Ernesto looks to scrape the Yucatan Peninsula before shooting into the Gulf of Mexico. With this 10 PM update, my confidence grows that this may become more of a Gulf Coast threat than Mexico. Whether that verifies remains to be seen.