Wednesday, August 3, 2011

August 3: TS Emily Models Shift, US Now At Risk for Impact (10:00 PM CDT Update)

Ensemble Models called Spaghetti Models have shifted westward over the course of today. Emily has become stationary over the Hispaniola area. Below is critical information regarding Emily.

Strength: 50 MPH (Moderate Tropical Storm)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars.
Current Movement: STATIONARY

Emily is indeed stationary over the Haiti region, providing a life-threatening situation for thousands of people. Should Emily remain stationary, she could induce a truly horrific flash flooding event in Haiti, even as victims of the January 2010 earthquake remain living in tents on sides of hills, where landslides could occur.
Those spaghetti models above have all shifted west. Some have really moved west into the Gulf of Mexico, but most have shifted a fair amount west, with some models making landfall on Florida now.
Despite this, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has actually shifted their own track east as other models turn west. The Weather Centre believes this is still on the table, but with Emily stationary, it is unknown what could happen next at this time.
The center of circulation (COC) of Emily is to the west of the two big blobs of strong convection. These blobs are intense, signifying the COC is exposed out to the west and indicating only parts of Emily are holding up. The west portion of Emily is exposed. Below, we have obtained an image showing the center of circulation.
We see the COC is exposed, however recent observations indicate that convection is firing over the stationary Emily, which could be a sign of strengthening and big organization help.
We will continue watching Emily for further information, and you can count on us for timely updates on TS Emily.

10:00 PM Emily Update will be issued soon

We are sorry for not being able to post any TS emily updates as we were out taking beautiful pictures for you, the viewers.

However, the 10:00 PM CDT update on Emily will be BIG.

August 3: TS Emily Track stays the same, Landfall Still Possible (10:00 AM Update)

Tropical Storm Emily's track has stayed the same overnight. However, intensity forecasts are different.

Emily's track is still very close to Florida and the East Coast. Tropical Storm winds are to the north and east of the center of circulation (COC). Tropical Storm warnings remain up in Haiti and surrounding areas, with tropical storm watches farther up north.

Ensemble forecasts remain mostly to the east, but some models prefer a track towards the Gulf of Mexico. Intensity Forecasts range from Category 3 to Category 1 strength.
There is also a chance for landfall on the states above Florida. Click here for the loop of the storm track.